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Russia-US co-production scenario in Syria: What will Turkey do?

While the possibility and even the signs of a new operation due to the growing attacks of the terrorist organization YPG / PKK in the regions cleared of terrorism in northern Syria with the operations Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch and Fountain of Peace, the situation in Idlib is not encouraging. Despite the recent meeting in Sochi, attacks by Russian-backed Assad forces against the civilian population continue unabated. There are even reports of preparations for a new chemical attack. Of course, this means the possibility of a new wave of migration to Turkey. Meanwhile, in addition to YPG / PKK activity across the region, there is also intelligence and data on the awakening of the dormant cells of ISIS. In other words, not only from one side, but also from the US, Russia and the regime are working together to disrupt both the Idlib problem in northern Syria and order and stability in the safe areas under control. from Turkey. Their intentions are known. Making the safe areas controlled by TAF uninhabitable for civilians, showing the failed Turkish model in front of other regions of Syria and the international public, and forcing Turkey to withdraw with intimidation activities. The same end goal applies to Idlib. So there is a Russian-American co-production scenario, a dirty workbench situation, which increases tension in the region in a planned way. On the one hand, they both act as allies with Turkey, on the other hand, they are working for their own interests using the YPG / PKK terrorist organization and the other for the Syrian regime. Furthermore, there seems to be an air of secret alliance between the two. It can even be said that they have reached an agreement on the future of Syria, or rather its division. It signifies both the presence of the YPG / PKK in the east of the Euphrates and the tracing of Assad’s borders. That is why they do not want Turkey in the region, that is clear. Because Turkey stopped the YPG / PKK in that region, eliminated DAESH and had a voice in northern Syria. This worries the United States and Russia that “a much stronger Turkey on the field can get whatever it wants on the table.” Therefore, they do not want to bring Turkey to the table as much as possible. Also in this case, the fundamental question is what will be the position of Turkey in the face of these developments and intentions. The answer given by a senior military official I spoke to yesterday was:

“There is a public order that Turkey has established in the Euphrates Shield, Olive Branch and Fountain of Peace areas of operation. This public order is essential for the security of Turkey. Turkey will not surrender in these places, this will not allow public order to be disturbed. Therefore, the necessary preventive measures or active position are taken, an attitude to maintain all kinds of order here. Possibly, there are some threats and infiltrations that may be directed towards Turkey from the Kamışlı region and Haseke from the east of the Euphrates, which are happening right now. The PKK cannot infiltrate from Qandil, they are trying to infiltrate from Syria. Turkey controls this within its own borders, but if there are more serious and different initiatives tomorrow, Turkey will take action here as well. In other words, it does not leave it blank in this sense.

What about the tension in Idlib? What will be the probability of a new wave of immigration?

“3.5 million people in Idlib are scattered, not all of them live in one place. Atme camp near turbulent Turkey at the immigration point. About a million people live. There are also makeshift camps near the Turkish border. In other words, a mass of about 2 million in total can be mobilized. If they come and bomb this Atme camp and its surroundings or something, which is against the rules of engagement, I don’t think they can do it. Then there could be such a threat. But in general, around 20 thousand briquette houses built on that line were delivered, and a capacity of around 50 thousand will be delivered soon. So, in a sense, buffer zones were created there. Therefore, we do not expect a large migratory wave from that side. But if there is a total scrape, a drag or something like that, this is an unexpected and undesirable situation, and then Turkey applies the rules of engagement. “

Like what?

“For example, it does not fly or intervene in the 20-kilometer line because there will be a massacre against civilians if such a thing happens. Turkey has shown the whole world what it can do with the operations it has carried out so far. If Turkey is talking about something, it will do whatever it takes. He doesn’t talk like that. So, he gave this message. The state has parameters, it does it if necessary. Turkey is strong and determined in this regard … “

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